{"id":524,"date":"2020-11-01T14:14:37","date_gmt":"2020-11-01T19:14:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.subbrilliant.com\/blog\/?p=524"},"modified":"2020-11-01T14:15:46","modified_gmt":"2020-11-01T19:15:46","slug":"iowa-electronic-markets-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.subbrilliant.com\/blog\/?p=524","title":{"rendered":"Iowa Electronic Markets 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>For the past three US presidential elections I&#8217;ve compared the results of the <a href=\"http:\/\/tippie.uiowa.edu\/iem\/index.cfm\">Iowa Electronic Markets<\/a> two days before election day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In <a href=\"http:\/\/www.subbrilliant.com\/blog\/?p=203\">2008<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.subbrilliant.com\/blog\/?p=376\">2012<\/a> I posted what the market predicted and waited to see how it would do. In each of those elections the market predicted accurately within a few percentage points of the actual vote. In <a href=\"http:\/\/www.subbrilliant.com\/blog\/?p=499\">2016<\/a> it predicted the percentage vote for the Republican candidate within a couple percentage points but was off for the Democratic candidate thought it rightly predicted her getting the higher percentage. It was wrong about the overall winner in 2016. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before 2016, the IEM had an excellent track record going back to 2000 when it accurately forecast Gore winning the popular vote and Bush winning the election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Can the IEM do well in 2020?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s review the past numbers and then see what the IEM says today, two days before election day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two days before the 2000 election<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Who will win<br>Al Gore \u2013 27.3%<br>George Bush \u2013 74.9%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vote Share Prediction<br>Al Gore \u2013 49.6%<br>George Bush \u2013 49.4%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Actual result<br>Al Gore \u2013 48.4%,<br>George Bush 47.9% \u2013 Winner<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two days before the 2004 election<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Who will win<br>George Bush \u2013 55.2%<br>John Kerry \u2013 45.3%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vote Share Prediction<br>George Bush \u2013 51.7%<br>John Kerry \u2013 48%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Actual result<br>George Bush \u2013 50.7% \u2013 Winner<br>John Kerry \u2013 48.3%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two days before the 2008 election<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Who will win<br>John McCain \u2013 11.2%<br>Barack Obama \u2013 88.3%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vote Share Prediction<br>John McCain \u2013 47%<br>Barack Obama \u2013 53.5%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Actual Result<br>John McCain \u2013 45.66%<br>Barack Obama \u2013 52.92% \u2013 Winner<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two days before the 2012 election<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Who will win<br>Mit Romney \u2013 29.1%<br>Barack Obama \u2013 71.8%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vote Share Prediction<br>Mit Romney \u2013 48.0%<br>Barack Obama \u2013 52.8%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Actual Result<br>Mit Romney \u2013 47.2%<br>Barack Obama \u2013 51.1% \u2013 Winner<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two days before the 2016 election<br>Who will win<br>Donald Trump\u2013 29.3%<br>Hillary Clinton \u2013 70.5%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vote Share Prediction<br>Donald Trump\u2013 45.3%<br>Hillary Clinton \u2013 57.5%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Actual Result<br>Donald Trump- 46.1% &#8211; Winner<br>Hillary Clinton- 48.2%<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two days before the 2020 election<br>Who will win<br>Donald Trump\u2013  13%<br>Joe Biden \u2013 89.6%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vote Share Prediction<br>Donald Trump \u2013 46.8%<br>Joe Biden \u2013 53.4%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Actual Result<br>Donald Trump- <br>Joe Biden- <br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For the past three US presidential elections I&#8217;ve compared the results of the Iowa Electronic Markets two days before election day. In 2008 and 2012 I posted what the market predicted and waited to see how it would do. In each of those elections the market predicted accurately within a few percentage points of the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.subbrilliant.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/524"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.subbrilliant.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.subbrilliant.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.subbrilliant.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.subbrilliant.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=524"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/www.subbrilliant.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/524\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":526,"href":"http:\/\/www.subbrilliant.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/524\/revisions\/526"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.subbrilliant.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.subbrilliant.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.subbrilliant.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}