East Meets West 187: Security through absurdity

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We discuss the necessity and effectiveness for new TSA security measures at the airport, discuss some listener comments on Avatar, and make our predictions for the next decade.
http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.archive.org/download/EastMeetsWest187SecurityThroughAbsurdity/eastmeetswest187.mp3

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http://www.rightsideoftech.com russ960

Tom:

The reality is the Obamacare plan is not going to save money. First the CBO estimates are based on 10 years of taxes, fees and such but only 6 years of actual spending on health care as the program for health benefits kicks in then. Second the plan assumes congress will enact some cuts in Medicare that have been discussed over and over again within congress but are never done as they are politically unpopular. If you exclude them the plan becomes much more expensive and is deficit neutral. The Cato Institue as a number of podcasts, blogs and whitepapers on these problems. Finally, what do you guys think about the personal mandates the bill has? What should be the penelty for failing to buy your own insurance. Some Dems have indicated jail time would be appropriate. Also the bills flaw with pre-existing coverage means a person without insurance can simply wait do nothing then when they get some thing catastrophic get insurance and they are covered. This also was addressed by Cato..

As a side note Tom you have express alot of frustration about partisan bickering of late. I suggest getting the Cato Daily podcast as they give actual facts to backup their opinions. I don't always agree with them but atleast they have rational discussions.
http://www.kong-cast.com Foxlore

As an ex-pat living overseas the one thing that truly concerns me about the healthcare plan is the 'penalty/fine' imposed on those who do not have health coverage. Since I am still and US citizen and pay taxes but do not carry a US health plan, I am wondering if I will be hit by that fine. ( I have read elsewhere that it is a figure like $750) Since I live most of the year in Hong Kong (and am a resident) I can use the state facilitites and private doctors (both cheap and fairly efficient). While I travel back to the states twice a year, I typically buy travel insurance to cover any accidents, etc…However, I don't think this type of insurance will be a qualifier since it is a temporary plan.

Despite all the resistance and add campaigns, insurance industry stocks seem to be doing extremely well despite the current economic environment. This makes me think that there is not a whole lot in this current bill that will do anything to 'shake up' or reform the industry. I get the distinct impression that simply being able to say 'we passed something' somehow will vindicate the democrats on this one.

In addition, I am no constitutional scholar, but forcing people to 'buy a product' or 'pay a penalty' seems allot like the old protection racket, and does not seem entirely constituional. I would not be suprised if this one ends up in the Supreme Court in the near future.

As far as future predicitons go…I predict SG:Universe won't see a third season ;-)
http://edykstra.pip.verisignlabs.com/ ~eriC

Oh dear god, what did you do Tom?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091230/ap_on_re_us…
Ananzi81

You guys hit the nail on the head with the new security rules. Many of the TSA safety measures aren't about making people safe; but creating the illusion that you are safer by being inconvenienced. They limit the amount of liquids; but they do not inspect the liquids. One person might not be able to carry enough to make a bomb; but 3 or 4 might so limiting the amount of liquids doesn't really prevent terrorism. A couple of years ago I was pulled aside while going through security because they didn't know what my Zune was. I explained it was a media player like an I-Pod. They let me go; but not once did they actually have me prove it was a media player. The safety measures are only as good as the people enforcing them.
Matt97

Hi all, here is my prediction for this decade. I think that for the western world people will go local and communication will be global. What I mean by this is that the modes of transport that will allow us to go more than 300-400km will become very expensive while the bulk transport systems will stay the same cost. The reason for this is that petrochemicals that allow cheap air transport and long distance car trips will become so much more expensive that it will become the purview of the rich and/or government and business. The reason why bulk transport will stay the same is that the energy used to power rail and ships will be wind and electricity. I think there will be great advances in these areas that lead to rail and ship bulk transport will stay viable. With the advances in communications we will be able to communicate with anyone in the world and we will be more connected but less likely to meet them in person.

In regards to any countries that is middle income to low income they will go through a time of famine and large people displacement as the effects of a decreased availability of water, more aggressive weather patterns, collapse of fish stocks, and rising sea levels occur together. I think that the Copenhagen and subsequent talks will not work (too many people with differing interests to get a coherent action). This will lead to greater levels of terrorist attacks (possibly up to nuclear weapon use) leading to even greater loss of personal freedoms. Possibly we might need to have permission to travel to the next province.

On a different note I found an interesting blog that people might like. This is done by a hedge fund manager and its quite interesting and no he does not use it as a platform for this own products. He noted that Bill Gates knew that Kodak was “toast” as a company in 1991 but the market didn't catch up to this reality until much later.
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/
Matt97

oh HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!
YAY a New year and a new start!
Matt97

The other interesting thing which I am not sure how it will work out is the societal forces that are at work in the Western Capitalist world as compared to what is occurring in countries or regions that has a different philosophy, which is religious in nature.

This can be seen to a lessor extent in the differences between the middle areas of the USA as compared to the East and West coasts of the USA.

One side is going to a more a reductionism of people to material and nothing more. This is lead by people such as Christopher Hitchens, Richard Dawkins, etc and while it would seem to be something that has its attractions as it goes to what is provable and to the break down of things to its base level the problem is that their method leads no possible way to build up from there. There is currently is a trend that is starting that is leading people to talk about what is legal as opposed to right and wrong. This is occurring as if there is only material there is no right and wrong but only satisfaction of material wants and needs and this is leading people to talk about what is legal or not. I predict that western civilization will change to one where right and wrong is a private matter and the debate in public will be about what is legal or not. The big question is will this lead to a society to which been a psychopath (in the non criminal but clinical definition) is seen as normal. Here is the usual checklist for it and I would say that society holds up as something to aspire to someone who would stop it nothing to achieve their goals and someone who only think of themselves (to “win” in this dog eat dog world). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hare_Psychopathy_C…

Please note that I think there is a completing worldview but by people such as Richard Dawkins breaking down the value of people to just the material this means that there is difficulty to intellectually tell a bono fide pschopath that using people is wrong.

By the way I believe in the value of people inherently.